Analysts at TD Securities expect the upcoming March US labor report to show a normalization in hiring, with a forecast of 30,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) The projection includes a 40,000 gain in private payrolls offset by a 10,000 decline in government jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.4% According to the analysts, these figures, if realized, would reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady
Separately, economists at Commerzbank have assessed the economic impact of the recent surge in oil prices on U.S. growth Their analysis suggests the United States is structurally less vulnerable to oil price shocks now than it was in the 1970s. This increased resilience is attributed to lower oil intensity throughout the economy and significantly higher domestic energy production, which helps cushion the impact on overall economic growth
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