On its 14th day, the US-Israel war against Iran has evolved into a grinding contest of attrition, with neither side achieving a decisive military victory Instead, the conflict's strategic balance is being shaped by Iran's asymmetric strategy, most consequentially through its effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz This maritime blockade has trapped an estimated 15 percent of the global oil supply, pushing crude prices above $100 per barrel and causing severe economic reverberations worldwide
Tehran has continued its missile campaigns, striking Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and West Jerusalem, alongside US and coalition bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia A significant operational setback for the US occurred when an air refueller was downed over western Iraq by Iranian-aligned militias, killing four crew members Tensions escalated further with an alert at Incirlik Air Base in Turkiye, raising the risk of the conflict spilling onto NATO territory
Despite sustained air strikes on its facilities, Iran's missile capabilities remain largely intact due to dispersal and deception tactics Politically, the government under new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei appears stable, holding large pro-government rallies in Tehran In his first public remarks, Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed
While Washington projects confidence, strains are emerging in the US-led coalition as Gulf states become targets Backchannel diplomatic efforts are reportedly underway, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaging Oman to relay messages to Tehran The conflict has become a contest of endurance, with the decisive factor being not who can strike harder, but who can withstand the escalating political and economic pressure longer
Mohsin Rana
