Southeast Asia’s long-held status as a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) is facing increasing pressure, not from overt weaponization, but from shifting regional security dynamics Despite strong anti-nuclear norms and continued legal compliance, the region is becoming more exposed to nuclear dangers stemming from the diffusion of nuclear-adjacent capabilities This emerging Southeast Asia nuclear risk is driven by three key factors: evolving maritime strategy, heightened conventional military competition, and the pursuit of civilian nuclear development programs These trends challenge the strategic 'firewall' the SEANWFZ was intended to provide.
The strategic landscape is also being shaped by developments across East Asia, where security dynamics are shifting beyond traditional flashpoints like the Korean Peninsula While the region remains formally non-nuclear, the introduction of these nuclear-adjacent technologies erodes the clear distinction between civilian and military applications. The convergence of these activities, spurred by great power competition in Asia, creates a complex environment where the lines between conventional and nuclear risks are blurring.
This presents new SEANWFZ challenges, as a conventional conflict could potentially intersect with nuclear assets, creating unforeseen escalation pathways The gradual normalization of nuclear-adjacent capabilities could have significant long-term implications for stability and nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia, altering the security calculus for all regional actors
Mohsin Rana
