Brent Crude Surpasses $100 as Russian Port Attack Threatens Major Supply Disruption

Global oil prices surged, with Brent crude crossing the $100 per barrel threshold, after Russia signaled it may declare force majeure on oil shipments from its key Baltic port of Ust-Luga. The warning follows a series of Ukrainian drone strikes that halted operations and caused a significant fire at the terminal, a critical hub for Russian exports. According to industry sources cited by Reuters, shipments might not resume until mid-April, threatening to remove a substantial volume of crude from an already tight market. This major supply-side shock is compounded by continued capital discipline from U.S. shale producers. Despite West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading well above $90, far exceeding the $62-$70 breakeven prices reported in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey, drillers remain hesitant to significantly ramp up output. The firms cite geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Middle East war as a key factor complicating investment decisions. The combination of a sudden, significant disruption to Russian supply and caution from the world's largest producer has created a bullish outlook, with markets now closely watching for official damage assessments from Russia and weekly U.S. production data for any signs of a response to higher prices.